"Time for Project Completion, Art of Estimation"

Duration tasks estimation is all an art! Do I need a crystal ball to guess the right duration for each activity in order to get the good average for work completion? When a first baseline level 3 must be issued, what major settings must be considered to minimize risks of delay?

Currently, there is “Three different options” to fix duration for activities completion:

-        First option when Owner and Contractor are both will to analyze and integrate the “Time Risk Allowance” to each activity duration [TRA settings detailed in the NEC 3 Contract Format]. So in accordance with contract negotiation terms (GTCC and/ or PTCC) and major Key Milestones, duration’s data’s become accurate. Owner accepts by this way “risks margin” highlighted.

Then from there, you have to monitor only progress of the submitted baseline and follow up the Earned Values (EV). This position allows total acceptance of time completion. There’s no reason to review durations submitted in the schedule until a delay will be noticed. At this stage, the Owner “well-weaponed” will be ready for “Claims war” due to discrepancies.  

-        “The first baseline is drifting due to capacity, productivity …” the submitted schedules are not acceptable and a lack of reliability is noticed. In that case, durations must be reviewed quickly to be re-forecasted again regarding the observed productivity or scope’s changes. Construction teams, both superintendents and supervisors, are asked to contribute and correct durations. Their professional background could be helpful by the bottom-up estimation method to re-adjust tasks durations and reforecast the remaining tasks.

-        The first baseline must be built and your WBS is fixed; you attempt to use models and stochastic formulas to estimate your margins and averages. This case will be developed through some common methods widely shared.

To perform the work, here are some Methods to get an estimated time for activities completion:

-        “PERT - Three points estimation approach” which is related to “Beta distribution”. It is very close to CPM Method (Critical Path). The three  following settings are took into consideration to calculate the Estimated Duration (ED) :

      Optimistic Duration (OD) / Pessimistic Duration (PD) / Most Likely Duration (MLD)

The Beta Law: ED = (OD + 4*MLD + PD) / 6 

-        Ginzburg-Golenko Approach for modeling complex projects concludes that the best way to calculate the ED is to use the formula below, available only in a case of what a gap between PD and ED is not very high. Otherwise the Model couldn’t be used.

Ginzburg-Golenko Model: ED = OD + ((PD - OD) / 3 )

-   Pareto Model: The 80-20 rule can be used to estimate duration’s activities, if we consider that 20% of t  he time reflects “a kind of psychological safety margin” or a “risk buffer”, the remaining time would be the real minimum duration affected to the task. The vice-vers-ça can be used, if you consider that with optimal productivity, you only use 20% of time to perform the work, and the remaining time will cover “meetings, shutdowns, sampling, inspection, …” 

"Planning is a condition for being dual"

This article focuses on perception that stakeholders have regarding what planners’ team do in the project. So before talking about this key point, we shall discuss first about the main role of these people through their several deliverables and outputs.

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything” - Dwight D. Eisenhower

The schedules reflect the adopted strategy to achieve and finish a project. Likened to a guideline shared to fix and adjust the common target dates. So it acts like a “collective compass” for the Project team. That’s why building up planning sequences is the first step. It comes after identifying work packages in accordance with Contract, Procurement and Engineering Dept. inputs. These major inputs are “Scope of Work Exhibits”, “Time Schedule Exhibits” with (Key Milestones) and finally the “Price Schedule Exhibits”. All these datas are mandatory to fix “rules of game” with subcontractors. In fact, if all elements are gathered successfully, a first Baseline can be issued and shared for monitoring.

"Without Labor, nothing prospers" - Sophocles

A reliable mobilization plan is a complementary part to the Planning. It helps to analyze and see if allocated resources are enough to complete the job without any delay. Planning staffs use “histogram” charts with trend lines to see relevant activity peaks either for leveling or reinforcing the manpower. These indications could help to both highlight if critical activities are well-staffed and estimate by the same way the level of co-activity.

“The key is not to prioritize what's on your schedule, but to schedule your priorities” - Stephen Covey

Priorities are close to strategy. The Plan execution, KPI(s), then different tools for follow up (Physical Progress, Earned Values indicators …), are key points to identify the project drifting. Planner’s teams are familiar with these topics. They provide Top Management with reports for risks mitigation.

In spite of being “centric” and playing its role of “Backbone”, planner’s team could suffer from a double bind syndrome. Especially, when the Project is going down facing a plenty of constraints in terms of Progress (completed vs. planned), the Planning Dept. becomes guilty and responsible for all what happens on earth. In that case, the Stakeholders perception becomes interesting and worthy to be analyzed to understand origin of the conflict.

Top Management needs to have a quick overview on what is occurring on field (site work), so you have to provide them with the accurate data coming from your interfacing work. Planners team looks like “Stormtroopers”, loyal and discrete.

Regarding Construction teams and others, as your work is based upon theory, models and calculation formulas, they consider you as “a disconnected project entity”, disconnected completely from field. Moreover, when you highlight good points in your reporting, you also dig out what others buried (dust under the carpet).

So this situation could be tremendous for everyone due to permanent conflicts. And monitoring the project could be entirely compromised. To avoid the consequences and minimize the double bind effects, some tips are up to help planners team :

1. Find the suitable alliances within the Project teams.
2. Ask for more committment from your bosses regarding your role (Top management).
3. Write procedures, notes, and flow charts to explain your role and your duties.
4. Define common KPI(s) with others.
5. Pay attention to "wording" used in your reports (Communication Control)

"The Monthly Face-2-Face" - # March 2015

"MEASURING THE PHYSICAL PROGRESS " 

After realizing the initial schedule, accepted and approved by #stakeholders, there is the equally difficult task of updating it and making it live. The basic input data of the #schedule are the actual start and end dates for completed activities, progress and estimated end dates for current activities.

If the accuracy of the recorded dates depends mainly on the rigor of the planner in the updates, the percentage of completion it, is much more complex to understand.It is indeed necessary to decide what kind of progress is the best indicated dependent on the nature of the project, the type of task to update, the level of detail of the planning.

A KPI(s) Digest

For each Reporting made by a Planning Manager, the question about relevant and reliable KPI(s) remains open. The main reasons for that is "how to highlight and choose good indicators while requirements for follow up are various and different from a project to other.